Executive Summary

CTGO’s Manh Choh first year of production materially outperformed guidance: 41,325 oz gold sold (30% share) vs 30–35k guided, at $1,209/oz cash cost and $2,281/oz blended realized price; FY2024 net loss was $38.0M (−$3.49/sh) driven by non‑cash hedge MTM losses despite $26.3M total income from operations and $40.5M JV cash distributions .
2025 production guidance maintained at ~60,000 oz (30% share); AISC updated to ~$1,625/oz for 2025 and ~$1,400/oz LOM (from $1,116/oz in TRS) due to bridge weight restrictions, higher ore moisture limiting haulage (~20% below TRS plan), and higher processing costs; at $2,500/oz gold, 2025 JV cash distributions to CTGO projected at ~$50M .
Balance sheet de-risking advanced: principal reduced to $52.1M at YE, then to $38.3M on Jan 31, 2025; hedge book cut to 86,739 oz at YE with 37,861 oz delivered/settled; facility amended to defer $10.6M principal and 15,000 oz hedges to H1’27 and extend maturity to Jun 30, 2027 .
Near-term catalysts: (1) Johnson Tract PEA “in the next few weeks” (management allowed it may slip into April), (2) Q1 2025 campaign cost print mid‑May indicative of 2025 cost curve, and (3) continued debt/hedge run‑off; management highlights 2027–2028 as strong unhedged, low-cost years .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Production beat: 41,325 oz gold sold (CTGO 30% share) versus 30–35k guided as higher‑grade stockpiles ran through Fort Knox; cash cost $1,209/oz and blended realized $2,281/oz; $40.5M JV distributions to CTGO in 2024 .
Balance sheet/hedge progress: principal down to $38.3M by Jan 31, 2025; hedge balance cut 30% to 86,739 oz; facility amended to better match campaigns and extend maturity to 6/30/27 .
CEO tone: “Gold production at the Manh Choh mine surpassed 2024 guidance…our focus has been and continues to be paying down the debt and hedge obligations…we continue to guide to 60,000 ounces…well‑positioned financially” .

What Went Wrong

Non‑cash hedge MTM drove GAAP loss: FY2024 net loss $38.0M included $34.3M unrealized derivative loss; realized hedge losses were $19.9M, masking underlying cash generation .
Cost outlook reset: 2025 AISC guided to ~$1,625/oz and LOM to ~$1,400/oz (from $1,116/oz TRS) due to Chena Bridge weight limits, higher ore moisture curbing haulage (~20%) and higher processing costs .
Operational headwinds emerged late: weight limits and moisture content constrained throughput vs TRS plan, requiring a lender/hedge reschedule and deferrals into 2027 to align with the realigned campaign cadence .

Financial Results

Headline financials (GAAP)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	FY 2024
Net Loss ($M)	$18.5	$9.7	$38.0
Diluted EPS ($)	-$1.90	-$0.81	-$3.49
Income from Equity Investment in Peak Gold JV ($M)	—	$28.5	$41.7
Unrealized Loss on Derivative Contracts ($M)	$12.6	$22.9	$34.3
Realized Loss on Derivative Contracts ($M)	—	—	$19.9

Operating KPIs (CTGO 30% share, Manh Choh)

KPI	Q3 2024	FY 2024
Gold Ounces Sold (oz)	27,677	41,325
Silver Ounces Sold (oz)	8,343	16,763
Total Gold Sales ($)	$62,342,487	$94,259,852
Total Silver Sales ($)	$245,559	$509,238
Avg. Blended Realized Gold Price ($/oz)	$2,253	$2,281
Cash Costs (By‑product) ($/oz)	$1,181	$1,209
Gold Sold at Spot (oz)	12,850	19,664
Gold Delivered into Hedges (oz)	14,825	21,661
Remaining Hedge Balance (oz)	109,775	86,739
Cash Distributions from Peak Gold JV ($)	$19,500,000	$40,500,000

Liquidity and capital structure

Metric	Sep 30, 2024	Dec 31, 2024	Jan 31, 2025
Unrestricted Cash ($M)	$36.2	$20.1	—
Debt – Facility Principal Outstanding ($M)	—	$52.1	$38.3
Hedge Balance (oz)	109,775	86,739	—

Notes and context

CTGO does not consolidate Manh Choh revenue; it records equity income from Peak Gold JV, realized/MTM hedge impacts, interest and exploration expense; “Revenue” is thus not a meaningful consolidated line item for comparison. AISC/cash costs and realized prices are provided by the operator (Kinross) and reported by CTGO .
FY2024 cost metrics include $250k sustaining/reclamation spend; AISC is non‑GAAP and referenced for 2025/LOM guidance .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Gold Production (CTGO 30%) (oz)	2025	~60,000	~60,000	Maintained
AISC ($/oz AuEq)	2025	N/A	~$1,625	Introduced (higher cost year)
AISC ($/oz AuEq)	LOM	$1,116 (TRS)	~$1,400	Raised
JV Cash Distributions to CTGO ($) at $2,500/oz	2025	N/A	~$50M	Introduced
Facility Maturity	Credit Facility	12/31/2026	6/30/2027	Extended
Principal Repayment Deferral	Credit Facility	N/A	$10.6M deferred to H1’27	Realigned
Hedge Delivery Deferral	Hedges	N/A	15,000 oz deferred to H1’27	Realigned

Drivers of change: Chena Flood Plain Bridge weight restrictions and higher ore moisture reduced annual haul capacity by ~20% vs TRS, and processing costs were higher than planned, lifting AISC; lender/hedge schedules were adjusted to align with updated campaign cadence .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (prev‑2)	Q3 2024 (prev‑1)	Q4 2024 (current)	Trend
Hedge/Debt Strategy	Entered 124,600 oz hedges at ~$2,025/oz covering ~65% of 2.5yrs; all production unhedged post‑12/31/26	Remaining hedge 109,775 oz; first $19.5M distribution; positive operating cash flow	Hedge balance 86,739 oz; plan to halve by YE25; debt cut to $38.3M; maturity to 6/30/27; ~35% hedged LOM (65% unhedged)	Improving (de‑risking)
Costs (Cash cost/AISC)	TRS AISC $1,116/oz baseline	Cash cost $1,181/oz in Q3	FY cash cost $1,209/oz; 2025 AISC ~$1,625; mgmt expects 2025 cash cost between $1,200–$1,600/oz	Worsened vs TRS; manageable
DSO Model Rationale	DSO and toll milling strategy outlined	Reinforced DSO approach/pipeline	CEO detailed permitting speed, capex avoidance; est. $600–$700M avoided mill capex; permits in ~1.5 yrs	Consistent focus
Johnson Tract (JT) PEA	Target PEA by 2025	“Near‑term” after 2024 drill results	PEA in a few weeks; may slip into April; focus on permitting portal/road/barge	Progressing
Haul Logistics/Constraints	—	—	Weight limits and moisture curbed haulage (~20%); cost impact cited in Nov 29 guidance	New headwind
Production Cadence	—	Upper end ~38.5k oz expected	41,325 oz actual; 2025 still ~60k oz across 4 campaigns	Improving

Management Commentary

CEO (press release): “Gold production at the Manh Choh mine surpassed 2024 guidance…our focus has been and continues to be paying down the debt and hedge obligations…we continue to guide to 60,000 ounces of gold production in four campaigns for 2025…[and] approximately 30% of net gold production for both fiscal years 2025 and 2026 linked to spot gold prices” .
CFO (call): “We started 2024 with $60M of debt…finished 2024 at ~$52M…made just under $14M principal repayment in January [2025], so debt is roughly $38M…expect to finish the year around $15M” .
CFO (call): “We expect to finish [2025] around 43,000 oz of hedges remaining…then those are paid down again in ‘26 and into early ‘27…hedge prices ~$2,025 in ‘25/’26 and mid‑$1,900s in ‘27” .
CEO (call on DSO): “By not building a mill and a tailings facility, we avoid a huge amount of capital…[we] got Manh Choh permitted…within a year and a half of starting the process” .

Q&A Highlights

Debt/hedge run‑off cadence: Plan to end 2025 with ~$15M principal and ~43k oz hedges remaining; hedges largely worked down by early 2027 under revised schedule .
2025 cost outlook: Management framed 2025 cash costs between 2024’s $1,209/oz and ~$1,600/oz; feasibility AISC was $1,116/oz but 2025 AISC guided to ~$1,625/oz .
Hedge pricing/mix: Remaining book ~$2,025/oz in 2025–26; ~15k oz rolled to 2027 mid‑$1,900s; mgmt emphasized ~30% spot exposure in 2025–26 and ~65% unhedged LOM now .
JT PEA timing and focus: PEA expected within weeks (possibly April); 2025 effort centered on permitting the exploration drift, road and barge landing .
Exploration: 2024 Manh Choh regional exploration had no material results to report; mgmt advocating more near‑mine targeting with JV .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS and 2025 AISC/production was unavailable at the time of this analysis; as a result, we do not present “vs. consensus” comparisons here. We expect estimates to adjust higher on AISC following the Nov 29 update and to incorporate the revised debt/hedge timing .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Manh Choh outperformed in its first production year with strong realized pricing, positive JV distributions, and tangible debt/hedge reduction despite GAAP losses from hedge MTM; the operating story is better than GAAP optics suggest .
The 2025 cost reset (AISC ~$1,625/oz) reflects real haul constraints and moisture; watch the mid‑May Q1 2025 campaign cost print as the first datapoint against guidance .
Balance sheet de‑risking is a core 2025–2026 catalyst: principal targeted to ~$15M by YE25; hedge book halved by YE25 with maturity extended to mid‑2027 to match campaigns .
Upside leverage grows over time: ~30% spot exposure in 2025–26 and ~65% unhedged LOM now; management highlights 2027–28 as unhedged, lower‑cost years as stockpiles underpin throughput .
Johnson Tract is the next leg: PEA imminent (weeks), with 2025 focused on permitting the exploration drift/road/barge—key to enabling DSO execution and medium‑term production optionality .
Near‑term trading setup: catalysts include JT PEA release, Q1 2025 campaign cost update, and incremental distributions/debt paydown; watch for any additional bridging actions on hedges or facility that could further smooth cash flows .

Appendix: Additional Q4 2024 Press Releases (Context)

$9.0M JV distribution (Dec 19, 2024), bringing 2024 JV distributions to $40.5M; preliminary 2024 production ~42k oz, later finalized at 41,325 oz .
Reaffirmed 2025 production and updated AISC and cash distribution outlook; cited haul and moisture constraints (~20% transport reduction) .
Johnson Tract 2024 drill results; 404 road permit received; planning for exploration drift permitting .
$12.0M JV distribution related to Campaign #2; ~38.5k oz 2024 production expected at that time .

All cited values and statements are drawn from company filings/press materials and the Q4 2024 earnings call: .

Contango ORE, Inc. (CTGO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary